2. Choices in stages

In the last lesson, we learned how to organise possibilities so that nothing is missed and nothing is counted twice.

Now we are going to discover a shortcut that lets us count many possibilities without listing them all.

From a tree to multiplication

In Lesson 1, we counted outfits made from 3 T-shirts and 2 pairs of trousers.

↻ Recall the tree diagram
START
Red
Blue
Green
Black
Grey
Black
Grey
Black
Grey

3 first choices, then 2 choices from each one

There are 3 choices at the first stage. From each of those, there are 2 choices at the second stage.

So instead of counting the six endpoints one by one, we can write:

3 × 2 = 6

That multiplication is not a coincidence.

Main idea
Multiply the number of choices at each stage

If a process has a choices at the first stage and b choices at the second stage, then there are a × b possible outcomes — provided every first choice can be followed by every second choice.

Practice puzzle
Ice cream

An ice-cream shop has 4 flavours and 3 kinds of cone.

You choose one flavour and one cone.

How many different ice creams can you make?
💡
Learning tipThink of the choice as happening in two stages. How many choices are there at each stage?
Reveal answer

There are 4 choices of flavour. For each flavour, there are 3 choices of cone.

4 × 3 = 12

There are 12 different ice creams.

More than two stages

What if you choose two scoops of ice cream?

Suppose there are 4 flavours and repeats are allowed. For the first scoop there are 4 choices, and for the second scoop there are also 4 choices.

4 × 4 = 16

There are 16 ordered two-scoop choices. For example, chocolate then vanilla counts as different from vanilla then chocolate.

And the same idea keeps going. Suppose you are designing a character in a game. You choose:

  • 3 hairstyles;
  • 4 shirts;
  • 2 pairs of shoes.

There are 3 choices at the first stage, 4 at the second, and 2 at the third:

3 × 4 × 2 = 24

So there are 24 different characters.

Practice puzzle
Build a meal

A café lets you choose:

  • 2 starters;
  • 5 main courses;
  • 3 desserts.

You choose one of each.

How many different three-course meals are possible?
💡
Learning tipWrite down the number of choices at each stage before doing any arithmetic.
Reveal answer

2 × 5 × 3 = 30

There are 30 possible meals.

When listing would take far too long

Suppose a code contains 4 digits. Each digit can be any of 0, 1, 2, …, 9, and digits may repeat.

There are 10 choices for each of the four positions:

10 × 10 × 10 × 10 = 10,000

There are 10,000 possible codes — and we did not need to write down a single one.

Practice puzzle
Three-letter codes

The English alphabet has 26 letters.

A code contains three letters, and letters may repeat.

How many different three-letter codes are possible?
💡
Learning tipThere are 26 choices for the first letter. How many choices are there for the second? What about the third?
Reveal answer

There are 26 choices for each position.

26 × 26 × 26 = 17,576

So there are 17,576 different three-letter codes.

What if the number of choices changes?

The multiplication idea still works when the number of choices changes from one stage to the next.

Suppose you are making a two-letter code using A, B and C, but you are not allowed to repeat a letter.

There are 3 choices for the first letter. After choosing it, only 2 letters remain.

3 × 2 = 6

The six codes are AB, AC, BA, BC, CA and CB.

Practice puzzle
No repeated digits

A three-digit code uses the digits 1, 2, 3 and 4. No digit may be used more than once.

How many different codes are possible?
💡
Learning tipAfter choosing the first digit, how many digits remain? What happens after choosing the second?
Reveal answer

There are 4 choices for the first digit, then 3 choices, then 2.

4 × 3 × 2 = 24

There are 24 different codes.

Does the order of the stages matter?

Suppose you have 3 shirts and 4 pairs of trousers.

You could choose the shirt first:

3 × 4 = 12

Or choose the trousers first:

4 × 3 = 12

The physical order in which you make the choices does not matter. What matters is that every outfit contains one choice from each category.

Challenge
Mystery balls

A box contains some yellow balls, some blue balls and some red balls.

You make a selection by choosing one yellow ball, one blue ball and one red ball.

There are exactly 24 different ways to make such a selection.

What could the numbers of yellow, blue and red balls be? Find as many possibilities as you can.
💡
Learning tipIf there are y yellow balls, b blue balls and r red balls, what does the multiplication principle tell you about y × b × r?
Reveal answer

We need three positive whole numbers whose product is 24.

Ignoring colour order for a moment, the possible sets are:

1, 1, 24   ·   1, 2, 12   ·   1, 3, 8   ·   1, 4, 6   ·   2, 2, 6   ·   2, 3, 4

Because yellow, blue and red are different colours, swapping these numbers between the colours gives further configurations.

Now add a constraint:

There are 9 balls altogether. What can you now say about the three numbers?

Reveal answer

We now need the three numbers to have product 24 and sum 9.

The only set that works is:

2, 3, 4

So there must be 2 of one colour, 3 of another, and 4 of the third.

One final clue:

There are more red balls than blue balls, and more blue balls than yellow balls. How many of each colour are there?

Reveal answer

2 yellow, 3 blue and 4 red.

Practice puzzle
Different cases

A café offers 4 sandwiches and 3 drinks.

You may choose either one sandwich only, or one sandwich and one drink.

How many different orders are possible?
💡
Learning tipThere are two different kinds of order. Count each kind separately.
Reveal answer

Sandwich only: 4 possibilities.

Sandwich and drink: 4 × 3 = 12 possibilities.

4 + 12 = 16

There are 16 different orders.

Important distinction
Multiply through stages but add separate cases

When one choice is followed by another, we usually multiply. When a problem splits into separate alternatives, we may need to count each case and add.

What have we learned?

When choices happen in stages, we can often count the possibilities by multiplying the number of choices at each stage.

a × b × c × ···

But always ask:

  • How many choices are really available at each stage?
  • Do earlier choices remove later possibilities?
  • Does the problem split into different cases?

Next: Arrangements

What happens when we arrange several different objects in order?

Why do the numbers 1, 2, 6, 24, 120, … keep appearing?

That leads us to factorials and permutations.

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